The Trust Deficit: What the Latest Polling Tells Us About Higher Education’s Value Crisis

The numbers are stark and hard to ignore once one sees the data. According to a recent NBC News poll, 63% of Americans now say a four-year college degree is not worth the cost—a complete reversal from just a decade ago when a majority believed the opposite. For those of us working in and alongside higher education institutions, this is not just another troubling data point. It is a fundamental challenge to the value proposition that has sustained American higher education for generations.

The poll, conducted in late October 2024 with 1,000 registered voters, reveals a shift that pollster Jeff Horwitt called “remarkable” in its scope and speed. In 2017, Americans were essentially split on the question. In 2013, 53% believed college was worth it. Today, only one-third of respondents agree that a four-year degree is “worth the cost because people have a better chance to get a good job and earn more money over their lifetime.”

What makes this particularly concerning for academic leaders is that the decline is not confined to predictable demographics. This is an across-the-board collapse in confidence, and is echoed in other polls as well.

The Scope of the Problem

Consider these findings: even among college graduates—the people who theoretically benefited most from their degrees—only 46% now say college is worth the cost, down from 63% in 2013. Among those without degrees, skepticism is even stronger, with 71% stating it is not worth it. Perhaps most concerning, the partisan divide has grown significantly. Only 22% of Republicans see college as worthwhile, compared to 47% of Democrats, highlighting not just economic worries but a broader crisis of institutional legitimacy.

This polling aligns with broader Gallup research showing that only 35% of Americans now rate a college education as “very important”—down from 75% in 2010. Meanwhile, the percentage calling college “not too important” has more than doubled since 2019, increasing from roughly 10% to 24%.

These are not abstract numbers. They translate into enrollment challenges, legislative scrutiny, reduced public funding, and increased pressure on institutions to justify their existence and their costs.

What is Driving this Trust Deficit?

The immediate culprit is obvious: cost. College Board data shows that the inflation-adjusted cost of public four-year college tuition for in-state students has doubled since 1995, while private college tuition has risen by 75%. Some elite schools now charge nearly $100,000 annually for the full cost of attendance. As one survey respondent, a 28-year-old with an associate degree, told NBC News: “The cost overwhelms the value.”

But cost alone doesn't explain the full extent of this shift. Related polling from Pew Research found that only 22% of adults think college is worth it if loans are involved, while 47% say it is only worth it without debt. This shows that the issue is not just the absolute cost, but how families are weighing the risks and rewards.

Other factors complicate the issue. The rise of artificial intelligence and automation has created uncertainty about which skills and credentials will remain valuable. Alternative paths—such as apprenticeships, coding bootcamps, industry certifications, and community college vocational programs—have gained credibility and visibility. The job market for recent graduates has weakened, with unemployment among recent degree holders increasing since 2022 to exceed the overall unemployment rate. And perhaps most importantly, many Americans no longer believe that a bachelor’s degree guarantees access to good jobs and economic mobility the way it once did.

Preston Cooper from the American Enterprise Institute captured this shift succinctly: “Students are more wary about taking on the risk of a four-year or even a two-year degree. They are now more interested in any pathway that can get them into the labor force more quickly.”

Implications for Academic Leaders

For university administrators, this data calls for more than just defensive posturing or public relations campaigns. It requires honest institutional self-assessment and strategic adaptation.

First, institutions must address the affordability crisis directly. While published sticker prices often overstate what families actually pay, the complexity and opacity of financial aid systems mean many prospective students make decisions based on sticker shock rather than net price. Institutions that can demonstrate clear, predictable, and reasonable costs—and communicate them effectively—will have a competitive advantage. This may require rethinking discount rates, simplifying aid packages, and providing better tools for families to understand true costs.

Second, academic leaders must strengthen the connection between education and employability without abandoning the broader purposes of higher education. This means offering robust career services, meaningful internships and experiential learning opportunities, employer partnerships, and better outcome tracking and reporting. Students and families want evidence that graduates get jobs in their fields and can service their debt. Institutions that cannot demonstrate these outcomes will face increasing scrutiny.

Third, institutions should reevaluate program portfolios through the lens of return on investment. Not every program needs to be judged solely by employment outcomes, but academic leaders must have clear reasons for programs that do not directly lead to specific careers—and they must communicate those reasons convincingly. The liberal arts education that “teaches you how to think” remains important, but the burden of proof has shifted.

Fourth, universities, especially public ones, need to rebuild trust with key stakeholder groups, particularly those outside traditional higher education circles. The poll’s finding that Republicans have become significantly more skeptical of higher education highlights concerns about political bias, free speech issues, and institutional priorities. Addressing these concerns sincerely—rather than with superficial fixes but through genuine engagement with diverse perspectives—is crucial for restoring broad-based support.

What Now?

The polling data does not suggest that higher education has lost all public confidence. Most Americans still view college as at least “fairly important,” and 59% of parents in Lumina Foundation research hope their children attend college after high school. The fundamentals—that degree holders still earn more and face lower unemployment than non-graduates—remain true.

Academic leaders who recognize this moment as a fundamental challenge instead of just a public relations issue will be better equipped to respond effectively. That involves making tough decisions about costs, clearly showing value through results, and rebuilding trust with transparency and accountability. The institutions that come out strongest from this period of questioning will be those that demonstrate they deserve the investment—not just through rhetoric, but through results.