The Hail Mary Fallacy: When Desperation Drives Strategy
Lourdes University in Ohio announced last week that it will close at the end of the academic year, making it the latest in a series of such closures over the past decade. The small Catholic institution's attempt to prevent closure offers a sobering lesson for education leaders tempted by dramatic turnaround strategies.
During the Great Recession, as enrollment declined, the university shifted from primarily serving adult learners to becoming a residential liberal-arts college. The strategy they chose? An area where Lourdes had little historical strength: Athletics. Over a decade, the institution expanded from 8 varsity teams to more than 20. The supporting logic at the time was that an opportunity to play would appeal to student-athletes who would otherwise be left off a D-1 or D-2 roster.
The numbers reveal how the story actually turned out. In 2012, athletes made up 11 percent of undergraduates. By 2022, that number surpassed 70 percent. However, even though the athlete count tripled, total undergraduate enrollment declined from 1,285 to 691. The costs of athletic scholarships—added on top of existing tuition discounts—created a deepening financial hole the institution never recovered from.
Steve Dittmore, dean at the University of North Florida, put it plainly: campuses that aggressively grow enrollment through sports additions or inflated roster sizes appear to be at much greater risk of closure. We would put it more generally: adopting a “Hail Mary” play is rarely a successful business strategy.
The Hail Mary Temptation
A Hail Mary in American football is a last-minute, long pass made to score when time is nearly up. The name itself highlights the unlikelihood of success—you're essentially praying for a miracle.
Independent schools facing demographic challenges or competitive pressures sometimes fall into the same patterns of thinking. This might be launching a signature program without sufficient market research. It could be a facilities project intended to set the school apart but funded with debt that the operating budget cannot support. Or it might be a bold rebrand or expansion into new divisions when the core program requires attention.
These moves share a common DNA: they're risky bets made under pressure, often without the thorough analysis that would accompany decisions made from a position of strength.
What Governing Boards Should Ask
Before green-lighting any major strategic shift, boards of trustees should ask for honest answers to several questions.
What problem are we really trying to solve? Lourdes needed more students. Athletics brought students—but not enough non-athletes to support the school —and at a cost that actually accelerated the decline instead of stopping it.
What does success require, and can we sustain it? Bold moves often call for ongoing investment over several years. If your initiative takes five years to grow but your financial resources only last three, you're not making a strategic bet—you're taking a gamble against long odds.
What are we not doing because we're focusing on this? Every resource dedicated to a turnaround initiative is unavailable for strengthening the core. Sometimes the less glamorous work of improving retention, deepening community engagement, or enhancing existing programs yields better results than the exciting new projects.
Who benefits from this narrative? Turnaround stories are appealing. They make for good board presentations and compelling case statements. But appealing narratives can obscure uncomfortable realities. Ensure that enthusiasm for the strategy isn't substituting for evidence that it will work.
Would dissolution be a better way to achieve our mission? Every nonprofit has a clause in its bylaws that explains how assets are handled during dissolution. Perhaps the best option is to liquidate and donate the remaining assets to a similar organization with a similar mission, while some assets still remain.
An Alternative to Desperation
The opposite of a Hail Mary isn't passivity—it's disciplined, strategic thinking. Schools facing real challenges need honest diagnoses, practical options, and the courage to make tough decisions before circumstances force their hand.
Sometimes that means recognizing that the institution cannot be everything to all families. Sometimes it means investing in what already works instead of chasing what might. Sometimes it involves having tough conversations about mission alignment and market position sooner rather than later.
Lourdes University isn't alone. Finlandia University and Fontbonne University are similar case studies. The pattern is becoming alarmingly familiar: institutions under pressure, major strategic shifts, and accelerating decline. [See our post on Five Factors that Doom Colleges.]
For independent school leaders and boards, the lesson is clear. When you feel tempted to make a Hail Mary, pause. The urgency that makes such plays attractive is exactly the reason disciplined analysis is most important—and hardest to stick to.
Remember that most Hail Mary plays fail—the ESPN sports network reports only a 9.7% success rate.